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权力的游戏——《2018美国国家安全战略》的霸主视角

李彬/清华大学国际关系学系教授,清华-卡内基全球政策中心高级研究员
2017-12-19 20:33
来源:澎湃新闻
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在武侠小说里或者港台的黑社会影视剧中,只要各帮派开始争权,故事情节就会紧张。这时候可能就有隐世的高人出来调停,调停的说辞有两种。第一个说辞是:“大家都是出来求财的嘛,这么搞来搞去还发什么财?”第二个说辞是:“两边不要再砍来砍去的,就相安无事啦!”演员说这两段话的时候一定要声音嘶哑低沉,具有不容置疑的自信。

类似情节涉及到无政府主义状态下行为体的三个基本追求:财富、安全、权力。在无政府的黑社会和武侠故事中,行为体包括帮派和个人;在无政府的国际社会中,行为体包括国家、国际组织、恐怖主义组织等。如果行为体的主要追求是财富,那么,它们之间最容易实现合作。所以隐世高人会用“求财”来敦促帮派之间实现和解。国际关系中的自由主义学派关注国家对财富的追求,因此,该学派比较认可国家间的合作。

如果行为体的主要追求是安全,合作会困难一些,但仍然可以实现。有时候由于不了解对手意图,行为体会采取一些措施加强自卫手段。例如,黑社会影视作品里帮派人物提着砍刀上街,其结果可能是对手也提着砍刀上街,出现所谓“安全两难”。防御性现实主义学派关注国家对安全的追求,认为“安全两难”是可以缓解的,在保持适度沟通和互相理解的情况下,可以谨慎避免对抗升级。

如果行为体的主要追求都是权力,那么它们之间的合作就会十分困难。一个行为体的权力往往就是要求其他行为体服从,因此,将权力作为主要追求的行为体之间往往会出现对抗。这就是我们在黑社会和武侠故事里看到的帮派为了争夺地位而爆发的腥风血雨;这也是冷战中美苏争霸的基本节奏。

即使其他行为体不一定有争霸野心,谋求霸主地位的行为体还是会觉得其他行为体的行动十分碍眼,觉得它们的一些行动是在扩张它们的权力并损害了自己的霸主地位。进攻性现实主义流派关注国家对权力的追求,在进攻性现实主义者看来,国家无时无刻不在力图扩张权力,因此竞争是必然的。

下面是霸主视角下对“扩张权力”行为的种种表述,可在新版《美国国家安全战略》中找到:

挑战(霸主的)权力(challenge power)、改变现状者(revisionist)、塑造一个相反的世界(shape a world antithetical to)、取代(displace)、扩张范围(expand the reaches)、按照自己的喜好重组地区(reorder the region in its favor)、扩张(自己的)权力(expand its power)、重申自己的地区和全球影响力(reassert their influence regionally and globally)、拒止(deny America access)、按照自己的喜好改变国际秩序(change the international order in their favor)、扩张影响力并获得竞争性优势(expand influence and gain competitive advantages against)、使得其他国家听从自己的政治与安全议程(persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda)、强化自己的地缘政治意图(reinforce its geopolitical aspirations)、控制地位(dominance)、获得战略支撑点/又叫“插一腿”(gaining a strategic foothold)、增加自己的权力(increases its influence)、把该地区拖入自己的轨道(pull the region into its orbit)、扩张自己的经济与军事存在(expanding its economic and military presence)、经济脚印(economic footprint)。

【附录】《2018美国国家安全战略》点名提到中国的地方(33次China,3次Chinese)

P2

China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity. They are determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence.

P8

ENHANCE MISSILE DEFENSE: The United States is deploying a layered missile defense system focused on North Korea and Iran to defend our homeland against missile attacks. This system will include the ability to defeat missile threats prior to launch. Enhanced missile defense is not intended Io undermine strategic stability or disrupt longstanding strategic relationships with Russia or China.

P8

China and Russia are developing advanced weapons and capabilities that could threaten our critical infrastructure and our command and control architecture.

P12

The illicit opioid epidemic, fed by drug cartels as well as Chinese fentanyl traffickers, kills tens of thousands of Americans each year.

P21

Every year competitors such as China steal U. S. intellectual property valued at hundreds of billions of dollars.

P 25

Three main sets of challengers-the revisionist powers of China and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North Korea, and transnational threat organizations, particularly jihadist terrorist groups are actively competing against the United States and our allies and partners.

P 25

China and Russia want to shape a world antithetical to U. S. values and interests. China seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacilic region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model, and reorder the region in its favor.

P 25

For decades, U. S. policy was rooted in the belief that support for China's rise and for its integration into the post-war international order would liberalize China. Contrary to our hopes, China expanded its power at the expense of the sovereignty of others. China gathers and exploits data on an unrivaled scale and spreads features of its authoritarian system, including corruption and the use of surveillance. It is building the most capable and well-funded military in the world, after our own. Its nuclear arsenal is growing and diversifying. Part of China's military modernization and economic expansion is due to its access to the U. S. innovation economy, including America world-class universities.

P 27

China and Russia began to reassert their influence regionally and globally. Today, they are fielding military capabilities designed to deny America access in times of crisis and to contest our ability to operate freely in critical commercial zones during peacetime. In short, they are contesting our geopolitical advantages and trying to change the international order in their favor.

P 28

China, Russia, and other state and non-state actors recognize that the United States often views the world in binary terms, with states being either "at peace" or "at war", when It is actually an arena of continuous competition.

P 35

China, for example, combines data and the use of AI to rate the loyal of its citizens to the state and uses these ratings to determine Jobs and more.

P 38

China and Russia target their investments in the developing world to expand influence and gain competitive advantages against the United States. China is investing billions of dollars in infrastructure across the globe.

P45

China and Russia aspire to project power worldwide, but they interact most with their neighbors.

P46

Although the United States seeks to continue to cooperate with China, China is using economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda. China's infrastructure investments and trade strategies reinforce its geopolitical aspirations. Its efforts to build and militarize outposts In the South China Sea endanger the freedom of trade, threaten the sovereignty of other nations, and undermine regional stability. China has mounted a rapid military modernization campaign designed to limit U. S. access to the region and provide China a freer hand there. China presents its ambitions as mutually beneficial, but Chinese dominance risks diminishing the sovereignty of many states in the Indo-Pacific. States throughout the region are calling Tor sustained U. S. leadership in a collective response that upholds a regional order respectful of sovereignty and independence.

P47

We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our "One China" policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan's legitimate defense needs and deter coercion.

P47

China is gaining a strategic foothold in Europe by expanding its unfair trade practices and investing in key industries, sensitive technologies, and infrastructure.

P48

We will work with our partners to contest China's unfair trade and economic practices and restrict its acquisition of sensitive technologies.

P50

We will help South Asian nations maintain their sovereign as China increases its influence in the region.

P51

China seeks to pull the region into its orbit through state-led investments and loans. Russia continues its failed politics of the Cold War by bolstering its radical Cuban allies as Cuba continues to repress its citizens. Both China and Russia sup port the dictatorship in Venezuela and are seeking to expand military linkages and arms sales across the region.

P52

China is expanding its economic and military presence in Africa, growing from a small investor in the continent two decades ago into Africa's largest trading partner today. Some Chinese practices undermine Africa's long-term development by corrupting elites, dominating extractive industries, and locking countries into unsustainable and opaque debts and commitments.

P53

We will offer American goods and services, both because it is profitable for us and because it serves as an alternative to China's often extractive economic footprint on the continent.

    校对:张艳
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