浙侨英频 | Solid growth bodes well for firm recovery

Employees of an engineering machinery manufacturer in Shandong province work on the company's production line of loaders. [Photo/Xinhua]

Progress to continue, but challenges expected from other issues, experts say

China's economic growth was better than expected in the first two months of the year, boding well for the steady recovery of the world's second-largest economy in the first quarter, officials and experts said on Tuesday.

They said China's economy has shown strong resilience and had favorable conditions to maintain steady and sustained growth in the first quarter. The country stands a good chance of keeping its economic operations within a reasonable range in 2022, the experts added.

However, they warned that the economy also faces new downward pressures and challenges due to the complicated external environment and domestic COVID-19 cases. Further easing of fiscal and monetary policies is expected in order to meet the annual GDP growth target of around 5.5 percent.

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference that China has the conditions to meet the annual growth target, and the strong January-February economic indicators have boosted confidence for recovery over the entire year.

Value-added industrial output rose by 7.5 percent year-on-year in the January-February period, 3.2 percentage points higher than in December, and 1.4 percentage points higher than average growth over the past two years, the bureau said on Tuesday.

Retail sales grew by 6.7 percent in the first two months on a yearly basis, compared with 1.7 percent in December.

Fixed-asset investment rose by 12.2 percent year-on-year in the January-February period, up from 4.9 percent for the whole of 2021, the bureau said.

Considering the better-than-expected economic performance, Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said China is likely to keep economic operations "within a reasonable range" in the first quarter.

Wen said China's high-tech industries are gaining traction and providing strong impetus to economic growth.

During the first two months, the added value of high-tech manufacturing grew by 14.4 percent year-on-year. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and services jumped by 42.7 percent and 16 percent, respectively, during the January-February period, according to the bureau.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said consumption, manufacturing and investment in new infrastructure are expected to be key drivers of growth.

He said more efforts are needed to increase financial support for industries and businesses heavily hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, spur consumption and expand effective investment in infrastructure, urbanization and key projects.

Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said that while China's economy had a good start to the year, the recent COVID outbreak and renewed restrictions will weigh on consumption and cause short-term supply disruptions.

Despite the promising economic data, experts said policymakers still need to step up fiscal and monetary support to prepare the economy for headwinds like the COVID-19 surge as well as a spike in commodity prices amid geopolitical tensions in the coming months.

The A-share market seems to have reflected the lingering downward pressures. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slumped by 4.95 percent to 3,063.97 points on Tuesday, its lowest level in more than a year and a half, market tracker Wind Info said.

Lu Ting, Nomura's chief China economist, said economic activity could weaken in March amid restrictions to combat the outbreak and a still weak property market, necessitating possible measures. These could include an interest rate cut in April and a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in the upcoming months.

Zhu Qing, a professor with Renmin University of China's School of Finance, said fiscal policy will play an active role in stabilizing the economy, with the expansion of budgeted fiscal spending of more than 2 trillion yuan ($313.6 billion) to bolster domestic demand. Tax refunds worth 1.5 trillion yuan are also expected to revitalize small-business growth.

An executive meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Monday determined that all key tasks laid out in the Government Work Report must be effectively implemented with a clear division of responsibilities and solid steps to facilitate stable economic performance while overcoming difficulties. The meeting stressed the need to coordinate the COVID-19 response and economic and social development, intensify cross-cyclical adjustments, place steady growth in a more prominent position and deepen reform and opening-up, to accomplish the economic and social development goals and tasks for the year.

【背景阅读】

巩固经济持续恢复态势——从开年“成绩单”看中国经济走势

开年中国经济“成绩单”3月15日出炉。面对复杂严峻的国际环境和国内疫情多点散发等多重考验，中国经济恢复好于预期。展望全年，中国经济仍面临诸多风险挑战，还需爬坡过坎。

国民经济恢复势头较好

百年变局叠加世纪疫情，我国面临的外部环境更趋复杂严峻和不确定，经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力。

“在宏观政策发力和市场主体努力的共同作用下，1至2月份，我国经济恢复势头向好，为今年一季度开好局奠定了坚实基础。”国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖说。

主要生产需求指标回升。1至2月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.5%，比2021年12月份加快3.2个百分点；社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.7%，比上年12月份加快5个百分点。

付凌晖表示，今年以来，在稳增长政策作用下，1至2月份，全国固定资产投资同比增速比上年全年加快7.3个百分点，高技术产业投资快速增长。

主要统计数据显示，国民经济仍运行在合理区间——

1至2月份，居民消费价格指数同比上涨0.9%，低于3%左右的预期目标；全国城镇调查失业率平均为5.4%，低于5.5%以内的预期目标。

2月末外汇储备32138亿美元，继续稳定在3.2万亿美元以上，国际收支保持基本平衡。

值得注意的是，在高基数基础上，我国货物进出口总额仍保持两位数增长，1至2月份同比增长13.3%，外贸增长韧性持续显现。

1至2月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长14.4%，高技术制造业投资增长42.7%；实物商品网上零售额同比增长12.3%；新能源汽车、工业机器人、太阳能电池产量同比分别增长150.5%、29.6%、26.4%……中国经济“进”势继续彰显，高质量发展取得新进展。

保持经济平稳发展仍有很多有利条件

近期，全国多地出现散发疫情，部分地区疫情形势有所趋紧。付凌晖表示，这客观上会对当地经济恢复造成一定影响，但全国疫情防控形势总体稳定，我国在疫情防控中积累了丰富经验，采取的一系列措施能够有效阻断疫情传播，对经济的影响会逐步得到控制。

面对三重压力，稳外贸成为稳增长的重要支撑。付凌晖说，下阶段，尽管国际环境复杂多变，但我国外贸韧性强、潜力大的特点不会改变，全球合作发展趋势也不会改变，坚定不移对外开放也不会改变，我国外贸仍将有望保持稳定发展。

从国际环境看，当前全球疫情扩散蔓延，世界局势动荡不安，地缘政治冲突加剧，外部不稳定不确定性加大。

针对俄乌冲突对中国经济的影响，付凌晖表示，俄罗斯、乌克兰在对中国进出口贸易中占比较小，对中国经济的直接影响有限。下阶段，随着各地持续坚持稳字当头、稳中求进，加大对经济运行的保障力度，外部影响能够控制在有限的范围内。

“中国经济韧性足、潜力大、空间广的特点还比较明显，保持经济平稳发展还有很多有利条件。”付凌晖说，各地区各部门加大稳增长力度，投资、消费、工业增长都出现明显的积极变化，一季度经济运行仍然能够保持平稳发展态势。

促进经济平稳健康运行

“面对新的下行压力，要把稳增长放在更加突出的位置。”——政府工作报告强调。

付凌晖说，下阶段，要继续科学统筹好疫情防控和经济社会发展，促进经济平稳健康运行。

消费是拉动经济增长的主引擎。付凌晖表示，要落实好扩内需政策，促进困难行业纾困发展，继续做好常态化疫情防控，积极拓展新型服务消费，促进服务业平稳健康发展。

在稳投资方面，付凌晖说，要注重提高投资效率，围绕国家重大战略和“十四五”规划，积极扩大有效投资，用好政府专项债和中央预算内资金，撬动社会投资，鼓励民间投资，优化投资结构。

上亿市场主体是保就业、保民生和稳经济的关键。

付凌晖说，要继续做好大宗商品保供稳价工作，多措并举增加市场供给，降低企业生产成本；落实好扶持制造业、小微企业的减税降费政策，加强对受疫情影响严重行业的融资支持，加大创新税收优惠，维护产业链供应链稳定。

今年国内生产总值增长5.5%左右——复杂形势下，有外媒认为，中国这一经济增速目标定高了，中国经济前景“不容乐观”。

“5.5%的增速不低，但实现5.5%的经济增长也是有基础、有条件的：中国经济在持续恢复，发展韧性强、潜力大、动力足的特点比较明显，近两年受到疫情冲击，中国经济发展还在全球保持领先地位。”付凌晖说，下阶段，稳增长政策持续发力，也将有力促进经济稳定增长。

来源|新华社

原标题：《浙侨英频 | Solid growth bodes well for firm recovery》

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