The Challenges of Global Security

原创 Rade Drobac 中国投资参考

Rade Drobac

Deputy President of the Belgrade Forum for the World of Equals

After the start of the Russian Federation (RF) Special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the international community turned its attention to that conflict while the international relations are by day more interlinked and greatly conditioned by it. United States of America (USA) predicted its inevitability few times just before its outbreak, but for the vast majority of the world it came as surprise. It is now evident that USA and their media machinery deliberately hid from other countries the very serious events around Ukraine and turned the attention of the rest of the world to other issues. The majority of the world didn’t know what was really happening there. World media under US control constantly ignored events, news, stands and warnings, in that particular case of RF, but also of other countries, if they don’t correspond to their interest and their vision of the world. Consequently, Western countries knew the real situation and didn’t do anything to prevent the coming conflict. They completely neglected the antagonisms and their worsening and basically incited the confrontation instead to work for the elimination of its possible causes. For eight years (2014-2022) they successfully hid Ukrainian massacres of Russian population in Dombass (about 14.000 civilians killed), the disrespect of Minsk agreements by Ukraine and the serious Russians warnings about constant, long-time growing threats of Western powers to the Russian security as a consequence of NATO expansion to the East. They failed to give truthful answers to the fears of RF upon their aggressive policy and warranties for RF security. Contrary to that, they urged Ukraine to provoke RF, armed it, trained its army, send specialized military personnel to help Ukraine prepare for the conflict against RF, financed the coming war and orchestrated media campaign against it.

In the first moment after the start of the conflict many expected that the military operations will end very fast with some new peace agreement and the return of the peace in that region. They believed that the relations between old (USA) and new coming superpowers (RF and China) would be treated seriously by all sides, with responsibility, and resolved without military conflicts and total confrontation, in the best interest of the whole world. But the situation has gone on the opposite side. The conflict is constantly spreading and intensifying and Western countries are every day more involved in it. They are constantly arming Ukraine, financing their political, economic and military survival, giving extreme political support, media coverage, military training and even active participation through mercenaries, military intelligence support and help of sophisticated military experts on the ground and many other means. The world slowly realize that that conflict is far deeper, broader and more complex that it looked in the beginning and that it is run about the supremacy in the world, its organization, financial order, ownership of resources, and everything else. Ukraine is just the battlefield of that confrontation.

Today, almost eight months after it started, the conflict is omnipresent, has global consequences, brings huge risks for the whole humanity, representing the real threat for the survival of the civilization. It is dramatically changing the international relations, not only military but also geopolitical, political, economic, legal, financial, religious, social and every other. In the current situation it is more then evident that the international laws doesn’t exist, international institution are one-sided and corrupt, antagonisms between two opposed sides, essentially RF and USA, doesn’t diminish and the global peace in the world is in danger. But, on the other side, it is also evident that the unipolar world that existed until recent, led by USA, doesn’t exist anymore. New powers had matured, RF - in first place as military power, and China - economic and financial one. Those two states are defying the supremacy of USA by defending their basic political, economic and other interests. Such policy is attracting every day more countries around them because of their political philosophy and international principles and behavior, their devotion for the “peaceful coexistence” in the international relations instead of oppression. In the same time USA, as the leader of the Western world, has by day less influence in the world affairs and even the countries that followed it from decades are turning to the side of RF and China, hoping to find with them more just international relations, freedom to choose their own way forward without pressures and conditioning and fair, open and mutually useful cooperation.

Nowadays, it is clear that RF is fighting in Ukraine the total war against the Western coalition, but predominantly against USA and Great Britain (GB). Without their support to Ukraine, by inciting confrontation, support in arms, money, military trainings, war high technological and intelligence help, media support and in international institutions, Ukraine probably wouldn’t fight that all or could do it very short time. This “proxy” war is clearly provoked by USA, run primarily in the interest of its global domination with intention to weaken and exhaust RF in order to destroy it, split it apart and seize its huge and numerous natural and other resources. The strategy of USA is to keep RF in war as long as possible, first against Ukraine, until Ukraine lost any war capacity. When Ukraine wouldn’t be anymore capable to resist RF, they will not hesitate to push some other Russian neighbor or “enemy” to fight with it in their cause. That could be Poland, Moldova or even Germany that is rapidly militarizing and it’s totally dependent of USA They search to foam discontent in RF and create through the medias the impression that the problem is with Russia, in first place with its President, and not with USA imperial ambitions. The US strategy is not to directly militarily fight against RF because that carries a risk to eventually loose the war, but to use “proxy” wars, what’s mean other countries to do that. The idea is to keep RF in war and sanctions in order to provoke discontent in RF, incite civil disobedience, disorder and unrests with the aim to depose Vladimir Putin from power and install somebody more benevolent to the interests of the West on his place.

Their current help to Ukraine is not because USA is defending international law, territorial integrity of the sovereign country or such values, but because it serves its war against RF. American retired four stars general Jack Keane, former Vice Chef of Staff of the US army, said to “Fox News TV” on October 7, 2022, that USA paid until that moment 66 billions of USD to Ukraine (for arms, support, trainings etc) for fighting RF instead of US soldiers, which is cheap because it represent just 1,10 % of the USA annual budget. He told that this “investment” in Ukraine is for USA very useful and beside that it avoid the possibility of nuclear war. Moreover, it seems that the huge part of that money is given as credits that Ukraine is supposed to pay after the war (approximately 56 billions USD).

The best evidence that USA is behind the war in Ukraine is the fact that all the moves in the international arena are incited by USA and their first ally, GB. USA and GB are leading in the total war against RF with everything except direct military conflict. They introduced all kind of sanctions against RF and are trying to oblige the whole world to joint to them. In eight months they tightened the economic sanctions against RF eight times. Those sanctions include almost everything, from energy supplies, food, medicaments, fertilizers, industrial products, high technologies, ban of flights, Russian culture, language, media, financial businesses, swift payments, travel restrictions, seize of Russian state and private property abroad, participation of Russian sportsman out of RF etc. They are also waging the media war against RF, all the time accusing it in UN SC and Assembly in relation of different issues, running a regular and constant negative media campaigns, pressuring every country to join to their aggressive policy against RF. It is important to mention that despite their laud and persistent verbal commitment to the international law the sanctions they introduced are illegal because only the UN SC has the power to introduce sanctions to some country and in relation of RF it’s not the case.

The present extreme level of aggression and hate towards RF and its officials and even towards all Russians citizens could be freely named as “Russofobia”. As a Serb, I totally understand and believe that such level of extremist policy of Western countries toward the particular focused enemy in the particular moment is the reality because I witnessed it personally in the case of aggression of the USA and their allies on Serbia in the nineties of the previous century. In that time, “Serbofobia” was on the daily “menu” and was very similar to current “Russofobia”. The violent break out of Yugoslavia from 1991 to 1999 was incited and guided by Western countries. The illegal and unfounded war of USA and their allies in 1999 against primarily Serbia was anticipated by media war against Serbs and run in continuity all the time of the hostilities, even now at some extent. As Russians today, Serbs were demonized, their culpabilities fabricated, they were accused for everything and nothing, the real events and goals distorted and falsified, the truth hidden and events interpreted in the wrong way. It is important to stress that the most potent tools of Western countries in their attempt to conquer the world are media distortion, misuse of facts, falsification and fabrication of events, selective use of laws, corruption of institutions and individuals and all other means that could be useful for them to achieve some precise goal. And such policy will be put in practice against any target country in any moment, without any concern about the truth, facts and arguments and without any shame or regret.

Nowadays, we are learning from USA, GB and their allies how deeply they are committed to international law, inviolability of state borders, how strongly they regret for the killing of civilians and innocent people and insist that the supposed killers are accused and convicted, haw deeply they deplore for the destruction of cities, infrastructure, institutions, including kinder gardens, schools etc. Yes, that’s pity, of course, but that is not because they sincerely mean what they say, but because they search everything they can find or invent to accuse and demonize RF, their actual enemy and opponent. They will use the same strategy against anyone that stands against their ambitions, interests and goals. It is important to remind that they have committed numerous war crimes, even much worse, in many countries in the recent past and they didn’t have any empathy for their victims. Even in Dombass, during 2014 to 2022 they didn’t even mentioned victims of the Ukraine everyday bombing - killed children and civilians, destroyed infrastructure. During their campaign against Serbia and Serbian people in the nineties they didn’t have any empathy towards Serbs killed, wounded or ethnically cleansed during US aggression followed by their allies on Yugoslavia (1999 and earlier in Croatia and Bosnia). They say today that they don’t recognize the recently held referendums in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson and the reunification of these territories with RF because they are “unlawful”. Such concern for the international laws is very commendable. But I wonder if it is in accordance to international law to recognize the self - proclamation of “Kosovo independence”, that happen in 2008, territory that is by internal (Constitution of the Republic of Serbia) and international law (UN SC Resolution 1244) an Autonomous Province of the Republic of Serbia? That happen after their aggression against Yugoslavia (Serbia) in 1999, illegal also, and during the period of rule of the administration of UN (UN SC Resolution 1244), in that Serbian Province, without any referendum, decisions of any legal international institution or Serbia itself (just on proclamation of the Pristina interim local administration). They immediately recognized such” independence” of “Kosova” (separatist name for the Serbian Province Kosovo and Metohija). Moreover, from that moment USA and their allies are pressuring Serbia to recognize a part of its territory and state as independent country. The devotion to the international law of USA and their allies is very doubtful indeed and fully depending of their particular interests, cases or situations. The international law is just the tool in their hands and they are using it in dependence of their interests. It is important to understand that fact because Yugoslavia (Serbia and Serbs) were the first victims of the Western imperialistic/colonial expansion after the fall of the Berlin wall. Since, there were a lot of other victims-Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria and many others. Currently, their victim is Ukraine, tomorrow it can be anyone, if that is in their interest.

Currently, in the attempt to preserve its domination and supremacy in the world affairs, USA is trying to prevent other powers, real or in formation, to endanger their world leadership. In that aim they are in the same time conducting different kinds of open or hidden confrontation with opponents: first with RF, through “proxy” war in Ukraine, then with EU, its supposed ally, but in the same time rival, and with China, its real big adversary and economic rival. Although EU and the majority of the European countries are at least verbally US allies or more correctly under their leadership and control, USA is pressuring EU countries to follow the policies that are practically destroying them economically, financially and, consequently, politically. The imposition to the EU countries of the obligation to follow their policy of severe sanctions against RF has much worse consequences on EU and European countries than for RF itself. The obligation to send arms to Ukraine, to finance their war and to cut supply of the gas and energy from RF, brought those countries to serious economic crises with real dangers of economic and even political collapse. USA is banning to EU and European countries to trade with RF and is also criticizing their economic ties with China, but in the same time they are increasing their trade with RF and China, through intermediary countries or directly. Even more, they are reselling to EU countries the products from the embargo lists for enormous prices, making huge profits of that and impoverishing EU in the same time. That policy is directed in first place against Germany and is part of their war against RF, because their old geo-strategic assessment is that the economic cooperation of RF and Germany is dangerous for their economic and global interests. The political and economic close cooperation of RF and Germany could be the best union of the two countries where one has energy and the other technology and industry and that’s the reason US run by decades and even longer the policy aimed to prevent their strategic partnership. In the same time, by such policy USA is creating deep dependence of EU countries from it, eroding constantly their independent position and policy and their responsibility for their own nation. The clear evidence of that is the recent sabotage of the North Stream pipeline. Few days ago in Belgrade, Canadian prof. Michel Chossudovsky declared to TV Happy that in legal terms, this sabotage is an act of war against Sweden and Denmark, because it happens in their territorial waters. He affirmed that that act is directed against Germany and performed by USA, which President Joe Bidden publicly admitted the US responsibility for that act. Since Germany, Sweden and Denmark didn’t react, that’s can be considered of a betrayal of their countries interests and in the same time confirm that they are not free and independent countries, capable to conduct the policy in the interest of their citizens. He affirmed that their political elites are under the US rule and fulfilling their interests instead of the interest of their own countries and the people that elected them. The consequences of anti national policies in the whole Europe are every day more evident and, as consequence, there are everyday more protests on the streets of the cities of Europe, searching for the abolition of the policy of sanctions that endanger their lives and economic wellbeing. They start to understand that their interests are damaged and their standard and level of life is drastically decreasing because they are blindly following politics of USA. How that process of contestation of the official politics in many countries in EU and Europe will end is difficult to say. But with the coming of the winter and the lack of energy it is very possible to witness the fall or some governments and changes of regimes. In the most realistic terms, it is to expect that such policies of the total dependence on USA will lose ground and that new political forces would appear, despite economic and financial dependence of the EU from USA.

Relatively to China, it is clear that its economic might, its huge possibilities in every field of human development, its financial and recently every day stronger military capabilities, make from China the biggest rival and opponent of USA. Currently, China is “in waiting” to come to the agenda of USA for all kind of subversions. Occasionaly, USA is provoking it but doesn’t have might to fight in the same time RF and China. In the meantime China is progressing every day more and the time is not working for USA, which is loosing the race with China, in first place economic and financial. It is evident that USA is deeply involved in Ukraine conflict and has internal problems, including the imminent danger of the possible results of the next mid-term election. If Democrats lose those elections, that can bring serious changes in their global agenda and consequently foreign policy. If that happen, perhaps China could avoid serious confrontation with USA. If not, it should be prepared for the confrontation wits US in the near future that could probably start around Taiwan issue.

The most important tool in that puzzle is USA because it pulls the strings of all events, fuel the conflict and can stop it. Because of that it is important to say that precisely in USA the things can change in the very near future. If that happens, that can help the world to go out from the impasse in which the current situation is now. I am referring to the mid-term elections for the House of the representatives in USA, to be held on November 8, 2022, together with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Since the actual political leadership (Democrats) has a thin majority in both bodies and Democrats lost most of the support in the country it is very likely that the Republican Party can win those elections. If that happen, the agenda of USA, oriented to international and global issues, including the unconditional support to Ukraine, will certainly change, at least to certain degree. The eventual new majority, Republican one, if they win, already announced the changes in the internal and external policy. In first place they plan to reduce US support to Ukraine, in arms, finances and any other, and turn, in first place, to the internal problems. They speak that they will launch the initiative for the impeachment of the actual President Joe Bidden and for the indictment of his son for corruption and criminal activities, partly in Ukraine. If that happens, Ukraine will lose the main support for the continuation of the conflict that could open the way for its end and some peaceful solution of the war that would normalize the whole global situation. But it is necessary to be very cautious about such predictions. If Democrats lose the majority, their global agenda would be endangered especially if that will be followed by the lost of the presidential elections in USA in 2024, and all their plans for the world changes, so-called “big reset” could be eroded and null. Having that in mind, it is not an unfounded belief that those elections could be cancelled or postponed because of some external or internal reason, in order to buy some additional time, secured on that way, to recuperate and perhaps stay on power. It remains to be seen what will happen in the coming days. There is also a lot of possible setback that could happen until 2024, for the same reasons.

G20 Bali summit that is supposed to be held on November 15-16 2022, immediately after US mid-term elections, could be an opportunity for some peace initiatives but that partly depends of the result of those elections. Indonesia invited RF President Putin to the Summit, despite of the Western countries demand to not invite him. In this moment Vladimir Putin hasn’t confirmed his participation. But, if he come, it would be interesting to see what would be the reaction and the response of Western countries to that, especially if the Republicans win the mid-time elections.

For the lasting peace in Europe and in the world it is necessary to resolve not only the conflict in Ukraine but also global security issues and agree about the new world order based on equality and “peaceful cooperation of sovereign and independent states”, free of colonial oppression, pressures, threats, inequality, privileges, double standards and obtrusions. The first step could be the changes in the US political leadership and the shift of its policy from global dominance to the policy of national interest and the cooperation with the rest of the world based on equality, sovereignty, freedom and solidarity. If that happen, the conflict in Ukraine will became past.

Translator | Wang Xiaobo

Design | Demi

本文将刊于《中国投资》2022年11月号

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《中国投资》杂志创办自1985年，由国家发改委主管，国家发改委投资研究所、中国国际工程咨询有限公司主办，是我国投资领域唯一的中央级刊物，业界最早专注于投资领域趋势报道的核心期刊。创刊三十多年以来，杂志以全球视角看中国投资，涵盖宏观经济、行业分析和企业投资案例，同时以全球市场为坐标，聚焦特定国家、地区和重大国际趋势，目前已经成为世界各国政府官员、各类投资机构、专家学者、企业家以及记者媒体的专业对话平台。

《中国投资》杂志每期覆盖包括上市公司在内的200多家央企国企和10000多家中国民营企业、1000多家中央与地方政府决策部门和机构、1000多家行业协会和商会、300多家主要金融机构等，是了解宏观经济环境、行业趋势前景和企业投资案例的重要参考。

China Investment, founded in 1985, is a monthly under the supervision of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) China’s macro-economic management agency, It’s jointly operated by Investment Research Institute under NDRC, China International Engineering Consulting Corporation. Enjoying an exclusive position under the central government, China Investment is the core journal which started the earliest among similar magazines to focus on the investment trend. Over the past 30-plus years, China Investment has been in line with theglobal market as its fundamental coordinate with a strategic focus on specific countries and regional markets and those major international propensities. China Investment is a key dialogue platform for officials from different countries, investment agencies, experts and scholars, business people and journalists.

原标题：《The Challenges of Global Security》

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